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Damash Gilanian vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
2/13/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Damash Gilanian38%
×Draw31%
Naft Masjed Soleyman31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.06
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.92

Damash Gilanian creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
69%
Damash Gilanian or Naft Masjed Soleyman
69%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
62%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
15%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
65%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
29%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
9%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
60%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
23%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
55%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
38%
level
31%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
31%

Damash Gilanian at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Damash Gilanian 0–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Damash Gilanian 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 13, 2025.

The match was played at Dr. Azodi Stadium in Rasht.