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Damash Gilanian vs Mes Rafsanjan — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
1 – 3
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
M. Jelveh 42'
B. Afshar 76'
A. Pourmohammad 31'
M. Azarbad 13'
2/23/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Damash Gilanian30%
×Draw28%
Mes Rafsanjan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.02
Mes Rafsanjan
1.26

Mes Rafsanjan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Mes Rafsanjan
1.60

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
58%
Damash Gilanian or Mes Rafsanjan
72%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
70%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
11%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
64%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
27%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
8%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
72%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
36%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
42%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 66 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.60 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
30%
level
28%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
42%

Mes Rafsanjan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Azarbad
31'
A. Pourmohammad
42'
M. Jelveh
61'
B. Afshar
76'
B. Afshar
77'
M. Rezaei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Damash Gilanian 1–3 Mes Rafsanjan

Mes Rafsanjan beat Damash Gilanian 3-1 in Azadegan League on February 23, 2020.

Goals: M. Azarbad (13'), A. Pourmohammad (31'), M. Jelveh (42'), B. Afshar (76').

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.