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Damash Gilanian vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
10/14/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Damash Gilanian53%
×Draw28%
Khalij Fars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.38
Khalij Fars
0.69

Damash Gilanian creates 100% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 25 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
81%
Damash Gilanian or Khalij Fars
72%
Draw or Khalij Fars
47%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
26%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
75%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
40%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
16%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
50%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
15%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
74%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.38

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
53%
level
28%
Khalij Fars scores more
19%

Damash Gilanian at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Damash Gilanian vs Khalij Fars

Damash Gilanian beat Khalij Fars 3-2 in Azadegan League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Azodi Stadium in Rasht.