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Damaiense W vs Sporting Braga W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Damaiense W
Damaiense W
FT
1 – 1
Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
12/11/20221a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 9Campo Damaiense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Damaiense W27%
×Draw23%
Sporting Braga W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damaiense W
1.29
Sporting Braga W
1.85

Sporting Braga W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Damaiense W
1.31
Sporting Braga W
2.07

allows per match

Damaiense W
1.64
Sporting Braga W
1.26

finishing

Damaiense W+0.00on par
Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damaiense W ↓

Sporting Braga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Damaiense W or draw
50%
Damaiense W or Sporting Braga W
77%
Draw or Sporting Braga W
73%

Winning margin

Damaiense W wins by 2+
11%
Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Damaiense W 1+ goals
72%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
37%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
84%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
55%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Damaiense W (draw refunded)
35%
Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damaiense W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damaiense W attack 1.31 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Damaiense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Damaiense W scores more
27%
level
23%
Sporting Braga W scores more
50%

Sporting Braga W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Damaiense W 1–1 Sporting Braga W

Damaiense W and Sporting Braga W drew 1-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Damaiense in Damaia.