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Damaiense W vs Rio Ave W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Damaiense W
Damaiense W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Ave W
Rio Ave W
11/9/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 6Estadio Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Damaiense W35%
×Draw29%
Rio Ave W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damaiense W
1.10
Rio Ave W
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 10 away

creates per match

Damaiense W
1.31
Rio Ave W
0.60

allows per match

Damaiense W
1.64
Rio Ave W
0.90

finishing

Damaiense W+0.00on par
Rio Ave W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damaiense W ↓

Rio Ave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Damaiense W or draw
64%
Damaiense W or Rio Ave W
71%
Draw or Rio Ave W
65%

Winning margin

Damaiense W wins by 2+
14%
Rio Ave W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Damaiense W 1+ goals
67%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
30%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
10%
Rio Ave W 1+ goals
67%
Rio Ave W 2+ goals
31%
Rio Ave W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Damaiense W (draw refunded)
49%
Rio Ave W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damaiense W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Rio Ave W away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damaiense W attack 1.31 + Rio Ave W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rio Ave W attack 0.60 + Damaiense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Damaiense W scores more
35%
level
29%
Rio Ave W scores more
36%

Rio Ave W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rio Ave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Damaiense W 1–1 Rio Ave W

Damaiense W and Rio Ave W drew 1-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Algarve.