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Damaiense W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Damaiense W
Damaiense W
FT
3 – 2
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
9/16/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 1Complexo Desportivo Eugénia e Joaquim Cannas da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Damaiense W29%
×Draw25%
Racing Seixal W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damaiense W
1.20
Racing Seixal W
1.59

Racing Seixal W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Damaiense W
1.31
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Damaiense W
1.64
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Damaiense W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damaiense W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Damaiense W or draw
54%
Damaiense W or Racing Seixal W
75%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
71%

Winning margin

Damaiense W wins by 2+
12%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Damaiense W 1+ goals
70%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
34%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
12%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
80%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
47%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Damaiense W (draw refunded)
38%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damaiense W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damaiense W attack 1.31 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Damaiense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Damaiense W scores more
29%
level
25%
Racing Seixal W scores more
46%

Racing Seixal W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Damaiense W 3–2 Racing Seixal W

Damaiense W beat Racing Seixal W 3-2 in 1a Divisão - Women on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Eugénia e Joaquim Cannas da Silva in Damaia.