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Damaiense W vs Racing Power W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Damaiense W
Damaiense W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing Power W
Racing Power W
10/11/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 4Estadio Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Damaiense W32%
×Draw29%
Racing Power W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damaiense W
1.04
Racing Power W
1.16

Racing Power W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Damaiense W
1.31
Racing Power W
0.67

allows per match

Damaiense W
1.64
Racing Power W
0.78

finishing

Damaiense W+0.00on par
Racing Power W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damaiense W ↓

Racing Power W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Damaiense W or draw
62%
Damaiense W or Racing Power W
71%
Draw or Racing Power W
68%

Winning margin

Damaiense W wins by 2+
12%
Racing Power W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Damaiense W 1+ goals
65%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
28%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
9%
Racing Power W 1+ goals
69%
Racing Power W 2+ goals
32%
Racing Power W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Damaiense W (draw refunded)
46%
Racing Power W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damaiense W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Racing Power W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damaiense W attack 1.31 + Racing Power W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Racing Power W attack 0.67 + Damaiense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Damaiense W scores more
32%
level
29%
Racing Power W scores more
38%

Racing Power W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Power W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Damaiense W 1–1 Racing Power W

Damaiense W and Racing Power W drew 1-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Algarve.