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Damaiense W vs Estoril Praia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Damaiense W
Damaiense W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
4/12/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 20Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Damaiense W44%
×Draw22%
Estoril Praia W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damaiense W
1.98
Estoril Praia W
1.73

Damaiense W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

creates per match

Damaiense W
1.31
Estoril Praia W
1.82

allows per match

Damaiense W
1.64
Estoril Praia W
2.64

finishing

Damaiense W+0.00on par
Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damaiense W ↓

Estoril Praia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Damaiense W or draw
66%
Damaiense W or Estoril Praia W
78%
Draw or Estoril Praia W
56%

Winning margin

Damaiense W wins by 2+
25%
Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Damaiense W 1+ goals
86%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
59%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
31%
Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
82%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
52%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Damaiense W (draw refunded)
56%
Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damaiense W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damaiense W attack 1.31 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + Damaiense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Damaiense W scores more
44%
level
22%
Estoril Praia W scores more
34%

Damaiense W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Damaiense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Damaiense W vs Estoril Praia W

Damaiense W beat Estoril Praia W 2-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema in Lisboa.