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Damac vs Al-Raed — Pro League 2018

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Raed
Al-Raed
5/11/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 31Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Damac43%
×Draw25%
Al-Raed32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.52
Al-Raed
1.29

Damac creates 18% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Damac
1.32
Al-Raed
1.35

allows per match

Damac
1.23
Al-Raed
1.71

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Raed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Damac or draw
68%
Damac or Al-Raed
75%
Draw or Al-Raed
57%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
21%
Al-Raed wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
78%
Damac 2+ goals
45%
Damac 3+ goals
20%
Al-Raed 1+ goals
72%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
37%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
57%
Al-Raed (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.32 + Al-Raed defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al-Raed attack 1.35 + Damac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Damac scores more
43%
level
25%
Al-Raed scores more
32%

Damac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Damac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Damac 1–0 Al-Raed

Damac beat Al-Raed 1-0 in Pro League on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait.