Damac 1–3 Al-Ettifaq: Result & Stats | Pro League

Damac

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Ettifaq

V. Vada 38'

G. Wijnaldum 65'

K. Al Ghannam 57', 40'

9/26/2025

Pro League · Round 4Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Damac34%

×Draw25%

Al-Ettifaq41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DamacExpected goals in this matchAl-Ettifaq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.49

Damac

1.35

Al-Ettifaq

1.49

Al-Ettifaq creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

1.21

creates per match

1.65

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Damac

1.21

Al-Ettifaq

1.65

allows per match

Damac

1.33

Al-Ettifaq

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damac+0.00on par

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Ettifaq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Damac or draw

59%

Damac or Al-Ettifaq

75%

Draw or Al-Ettifaq

66%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+

15%

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals

74%

Damac 2+ goals

39%

Damac 3+ goals

15%

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

77%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

44%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)

46%

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Al-Ettifaq away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.21 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.65 + Damac defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Damac scores more

34%

level

25%

Al-Ettifaq scores more

41%

Al-Ettifaq at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Al Ghannam

Al-Ettifaq · M

9.3

Match Events

1'

Ondrej Duda

29'

Valentín VadaGoal cancelled

38'

V. Vada

40'

K. Al Ghannam

46'

M. Ali← O. Duda

57'

K. Al Ghannam↳ M. Nkota

59'

M. Y. Dawran M.← M. Nkota

63'

Y. Meite← David Kaiki

65'

G. Wijnaldum↳ K. Al Ghannam

67'

Abdelkader Bedrane

67'

T. Abdullah← R. Sharahili

69'

Tariq Mohammed

72'

Jesús Medina

75'

N. Alioui← A. Al Qahtani

81'

F. Al Ghamdi← Kouka

90+3'

Faris Al Ghamdi

90'

Abdullah Madu

90+2'

M. Al Olayan← R. Al Otaibi

90+1'

A. A. Khateeb← A. Medran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DamacAl-Ettifaq

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots5

7Corners2

10Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target3

6Off Target2

2Blocked0

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

431Total Passes370

361Accurate Passes304

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1