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Dalvík / Reynir vs Tindastóll — Cup 2019

Dalvík / Reynir
Dalvík / Reynir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
4/8/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundDalvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dalvík / Reynir66%
×Draw16%
Tindastóll18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalvík / Reynir
3.17
Tindastóll
1.67

Dalvík / Reynir creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dalvík / Reynir
3.00
Tindastóll
2.33

allows per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.00
Tindastóll
3.33

finishing

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalvík / Reynir ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Dalvík / Reynir or draw
82%
Dalvík / Reynir or Tindastóll
84%
Draw or Tindastóll
34%

Winning margin

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+
47%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals
96%
Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals
82%
Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals
60%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
81%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
50%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)
78%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalvík / Reynir at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalvík / Reynir attack 3.00 + Tindastóll defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Tindastóll attack 2.33 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dalvík / Reynir scores more
66%
level
16%
Tindastóll scores more
18%

Dalvík / Reynir at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dalvík / Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalvík / Reynir vs Tindastóll

Dalvík / Reynir beat Tindastóll 2-1 in Cup on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Dalvíkurvöllur in Dalvík.