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Dalvík / Reynir vs KF — Cup 2019

Dalvík / Reynir
Dalvík / Reynir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KF
KF
4/12/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundBoginn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dalvík / Reynir68%
×Draw17%
KF15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalvík / Reynir
2.70
KF
1.20

Dalvík / Reynir creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dalvík / Reynir
3.00
KF
1.40

allows per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.00
KF
2.40

finishing

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalvík / Reynir ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Dalvík / Reynir or draw
85%
Dalvík / Reynir or KF
83%
Draw or KF
32%

Winning margin

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+
47%
KF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals
93%
Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals
75%
Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals
50%
KF 1+ goals
70%
KF 2+ goals
34%
KF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)
82%
KF (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalvík / Reynir at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

KF away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalvík / Reynir attack 3.00 + KF defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

KF attack 1.40 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dalvík / Reynir scores more
68%
level
17%
KF scores more
15%

Dalvík / Reynir at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dalvík / Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dalvík / Reynir 2–0 KF

Dalvík / Reynir beat KF 2-0 in Cup on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Boginn in Akureyri.