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Dalum vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

Dalum
Dalum
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
9/24/20223. Division3. Division · Round 8Rema 1000 Park - Dalum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dalum24%
×Draw22%
VSK Århus53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalum
1.21
VSK Århus
1.90

VSK Århus creates 57% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dalum
1.06
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

Dalum
2.29
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

Dalum+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalum ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dalum or draw
47%
Dalum or VSK Århus
78%
Draw or VSK Århus
76%

Winning margin

Dalum wins by 2+
10%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dalum 1+ goals
70%
Dalum 2+ goals
34%
Dalum 3+ goals
12%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
85%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
56%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dalum (draw refunded)
31%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalum at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalum attack 1.06 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Dalum defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dalum scores more
24%
level
22%
VSK Århus scores more
53%

VSK Århus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalum vs VSK Århus

VSK Århus beat Dalum 5-1 in 3. Division on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Rema 1000 Park - Dalum in Odense.