Dalum 3–0 Kjellerup: Result & Stats

Dalum

FT

3 – 0

Kjellerup

11/3/2018

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15Dalum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dalum49%

×Draw23%

Kjellerup28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DalumExpected goals in this matchKjellerup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Dalum

1.77

Kjellerup

1.29

Dalum creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Dalum

1.05

Kjellerup

1.00

allows per match

Dalum

1.59

Kjellerup

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalum+0.00on par

Kjellerup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalum ↓

Kjellerup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dalum or draw

72%

Dalum or Kjellerup

77%

Draw or Kjellerup

51%

Winning margin

Dalum wins by 2+

26%

Kjellerup wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dalum 1+ goals

83%

Dalum 2+ goals

53%

Dalum 3+ goals

26%

Kjellerup 1+ goals

72%

Kjellerup 2+ goals

37%

Kjellerup 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dalum (draw refunded)

63%

Kjellerup (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalum at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Kjellerup away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalum attack 1.05 + Kjellerup defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kjellerup attack 1.00 + Dalum defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalum scores more

49%

level

23%

Kjellerup scores more

28%

Dalum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dalum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff