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Dalton Red Wolves vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Dalton Red Wolves
Dalton Red Wolves
FT
2 – 3
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
6/23/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dalton Red Wolves29%
×Draw23%
Tormenta II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalton Red Wolves
1.36
Tormenta II
1.79

Tormenta II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Dalton Red Wolves
1.46
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Dalton Red Wolves+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalton Red Wolves ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dalton Red Wolves or draw
52%
Dalton Red Wolves or Tormenta II
77%
Draw or Tormenta II
71%

Winning margin

Dalton Red Wolves wins by 2+
13%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dalton Red Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Dalton Red Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Dalton Red Wolves 3+ goals
16%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
83%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
53%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dalton Red Wolves (draw refunded)
38%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalton Red Wolves at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalton Red Wolves attack 1.46 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Dalton Red Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dalton Red Wolves scores more
29%
level
23%
Tormenta II scores more
48%

Tormenta II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalton Red Wolves vs Tormenta II

Tormenta II beat Dalton Red Wolves 3-2 in USL League Two on June 23, 2019.