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Dálnice Speřice vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
3/30/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 19Hřiště TJ Speřice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dálnice Speřice52%
×Draw23%
Stará Říše26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.87
Stará Říše
1.26

Dálnice Speřice creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
74%
Dálnice Speřice or Stará Říše
77%
Draw or Stará Říše
48%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
29%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
85%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
56%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
29%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
72%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
36%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
67%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.87

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
52%
level
23%
Stará Říše scores more
26%

Dálnice Speřice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dálnice Speřice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dálnice Speřice vs Stará Říše

Dálnice Speřice beat Stará Říše 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Speřice in Jiřice.