Dalkurd FF 3–1 Sandviken: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sandviken

3/7/2020

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dalkurd FF38%

×Draw20%

Sandviken41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchSandviken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.17

Dalkurd FF

2.09

Sandviken

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

2.80

creates per match

2.15

2.20

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

2.80

Sandviken

2.15

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

2.20

Sandviken

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Sandviken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

59%

Dalkurd FF or Sandviken

80%

Draw or Sandviken

62%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

21%

Sandviken wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

88%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

62%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

34%

Sandviken 1+ goals

89%

Sandviken 2+ goals

64%

Sandviken 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

48%

Sandviken (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 2.80 + Sandviken defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sandviken attack 2.15 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

38%

level

20%

Sandviken scores more

41%

Sandviken at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff