Dalkurd FF 2–1 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Osters IF

9/21/2019

Superettan · Round 24Gavlevallen (Gävle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF38%

×Draw25%

Osters IF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.40

Dalkurd FF

1.44

Osters IF

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 112 away

1.52

creates per match

1.35

1.44

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.52

Osters IF

1.35

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

1.44

Osters IF

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

63%

Dalkurd FF or Osters IF

75%

Draw or Osters IF

62%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

18%

Osters IF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

76%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

42%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

18%

Osters IF 1+ goals

75%

Osters IF 2+ goals

41%

Osters IF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

51%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Osters IF attack 1.35 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

38%

level

25%

Osters IF scores more

37%

Dalkurd FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff