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Dalkurd FF vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
8/13/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 19Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF40%
×Draw25%
Orgryte IS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.49
Orgryte IS
1.36

Dalkurd FF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 122 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
65%
Dalkurd FF or Orgryte IS
75%
Draw or Orgryte IS
60%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
20%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
77%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
44%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
19%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
74%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
39%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
54%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
40%
level
25%
Orgryte IS scores more
35%

Dalkurd FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Orgryte IS

Orgryte IS beat Dalkurd FF 2-1 in Superettan on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.