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Dalkurd FF vs Norrby IF — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
9/1/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 22Gavlevallen (Gävle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF43%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.54
Norrby IF
1.28

Dalkurd FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Norrby IF
1.12

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Norrby IF
1.56

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
68%
Dalkurd FF or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
57%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
22%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
79%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
45%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
20%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
72%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
37%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
58%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
43%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
32%

Dalkurd FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 3–1 Norrby IF

Dalkurd FF beat Norrby IF 3-1 in Superettan on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Gavlevallen (Gävle).