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Dalkurd FF vs Hudiksvall — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hudiksvall
Hudiksvall
10/13/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 25Sävja IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalkurd FF28%
×Draw22%
Hudiksvall50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.42
Hudiksvall
1.94

Hudiksvall creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.23
Hudiksvall
1.49

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.38
Hudiksvall
1.61

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Hudiksvall+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Hudiksvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
50%
Dalkurd FF or Hudiksvall
78%
Draw or Hudiksvall
72%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
13%
Hudiksvall wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
76%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
41%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
17%
Hudiksvall 1+ goals
86%
Hudiksvall 2+ goals
58%
Hudiksvall 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
36%
Hudiksvall (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Hudiksvall away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Hudiksvall defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hudiksvall attack 1.49 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
28%
level
22%
Hudiksvall scores more
50%

Hudiksvall at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hudiksvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs Hudiksvall

Dalkurd FF beat Hudiksvall 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sävja IP Konstgräs in Uppsala.