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Dalkurd FF vs Enköping — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Enköping
Enköping
9/15/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 21Sävja IP 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalkurd FF29%
×Draw22%
Enköping48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Enköping
1.90

Enköping creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.23
Enköping
1.41

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.38
Enköping
1.65

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Enköping+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Enköping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
52%
Dalkurd FF or Enköping
78%
Draw or Enköping
71%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
13%
Enköping wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
76%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
42%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
18%
Enköping 1+ goals
85%
Enköping 2+ goals
56%
Enköping 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
38%
Enköping (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Enköping away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Enköping defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enköping attack 1.41 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
29%
level
22%
Enköping scores more
48%

Enköping at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Enköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Dalkurd FF 2–3 Enköping

Enköping beat Dalkurd FF 3-2 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sävja IP 2 in Uppsala.