Dalkurd FF 1–3 Arlanda: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Arlanda

9/1/2024

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 19Midgårdsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalkurd FF34%

×Draw21%

Arlanda45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchArlanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.05

Dalkurd FF

1.75

Arlanda

2.05

Arlanda creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

1.23

creates per match

1.73

2.38

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.23

Arlanda

1.73

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

2.38

Arlanda

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Arlanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Arlanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

55%

Dalkurd FF or Arlanda

79%

Draw or Arlanda

66%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

17%

Arlanda wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

83%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

52%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

25%

Arlanda 1+ goals

87%

Arlanda 2+ goals

61%

Arlanda 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

43%

Arlanda (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Arlanda away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Arlanda defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Arlanda attack 1.73 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

34%

level

21%

Arlanda scores more

45%

Arlanda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arlanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff