Dalkeith Thistle 3–3 Burntisland Shipyard

Dalkeith Thistle

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Burntisland Shipyard

9/4/2021

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary Round ReplaysKings Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dalkeith Thistle43%

×Draw19%

Burntisland Shipyard38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkeith ThistleExpected goals in this matchBurntisland Shipyard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

2.25

Dalkeith Thistle

2.38

Burntisland Shipyard

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

3.50

allows per match

4.25

creates per match

Dalkeith Thistle

0.50

Burntisland Shipyard

1.00

allows per match

Dalkeith Thistle

3.50

Burntisland Shipyard

4.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkeith Thistle ↓

Burntisland Shipyard →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Dalkeith Thistle or draw

62%

Dalkeith Thistle or Burntisland Shipyard

81%

Draw or Burntisland Shipyard

57%

Winning margin

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+

25%

Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals

91%

Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals

68%

Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals

42%

Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals

89%

Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals

65%

Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)

53%

Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dalkeith Thistle at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Burntisland Shipyard away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dalkeith Thistle attack 0.50 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.00 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dalkeith Thistle scores more

43%

level

19%

Burntisland Shipyard scores more

38%

Dalkeith Thistle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dalkeith Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkeith Thistle vs Burntisland Shipyard

Dalkeith Thistle and Burntisland Shipyard drew 3-3 in FA Cup on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Kings Park in Dalkeith.

Dalkeith Thistle vs Burntisland Shipyard — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dalkeith Thistle vs Burntisland Shipyard