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Dalkeith Thistle vs Broxburn Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Dalkeith Thistle
Dalkeith Thistle
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Broxburn Athletic
Broxburn Athletic
Douglas 11'
9/27/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKings Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dalkeith Thistle9%
×Draw16%
Broxburn Athletic76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkeith Thistle
0.70
Broxburn Athletic
2.45

Broxburn Athletic creates 250% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.40

allows per match

Dalkeith Thistle
3.50
Broxburn Athletic
0.90

finishing

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par
Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkeith Thistle ↓

Broxburn Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dalkeith Thistle or draw
24%
Dalkeith Thistle or Broxburn Athletic
84%
Draw or Broxburn Athletic
91%

Winning margin

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+
2%
Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals
50%
Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals
16%
Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals
3%
Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals
91%
Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals
70%
Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)
10%
Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkeith Thistle at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Broxburn Athletic away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkeith Thistle attack 0.50 + Broxburn Athletic defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Broxburn Athletic attack 1.40 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dalkeith Thistle scores more
9%
level
16%
Broxburn Athletic scores more
76%

Broxburn Athletic at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Douglas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dalkeith Thistle 0–4 Broxburn Athletic

Broxburn Athletic beat Dalkeith Thistle 4-0 in FA Cup on September 27, 2024.

Goals: Douglas (11').

The match was played at Kings Park in Dalkeith.