Dalkeith Thistle 1–0 Blackburn United

Dalkeith Thistle

1 – 0

Blackburn United

8/31/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundKings Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dalkeith Thistle27%

×Draw22%

Blackburn United52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkeith ThistleExpected goals in this matchBlackburn United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.00

Dalkeith Thistle

1.38

Blackburn United

2.00

Blackburn United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.50

creates per match

0.50

3.50

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Dalkeith Thistle

0.50

Blackburn United

0.50

allows per match

Dalkeith Thistle

3.50

Blackburn United

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkeith Thistle+0.00on par

Blackburn United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkeith Thistle ↓

Blackburn United →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dalkeith Thistle or draw

48%

Dalkeith Thistle or Blackburn United

78%

Draw or Blackburn United

73%

Winning margin

Dalkeith Thistle wins by 2+

11%

Blackburn United wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Dalkeith Thistle 1+ goals

75%

Dalkeith Thistle 2+ goals

40%

Dalkeith Thistle 3+ goals

16%

Blackburn United 1+ goals

86%

Blackburn United 2+ goals

59%

Blackburn United 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Dalkeith Thistle (draw refunded)

34%

Blackburn United (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dalkeith Thistle at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Blackburn United away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dalkeith Thistle attack 0.50 + Blackburn United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Blackburn United attack 0.50 + Dalkeith Thistle defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dalkeith Thistle scores more

27%

level

22%

Blackburn United scores more

52%

Blackburn United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Blackburn United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff