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Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2018

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
Fernando Karanga 81'
A. Quiles 19'
4/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dalian Zhixing48%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Teda28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.69
Tianjin Teda
1.23

Dalian Zhixing creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.34
Tianjin Teda
0.94

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.53
Tianjin Teda
2.05

finishing

Dalian Zhixing-0.05on par
Tianjin Teda-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
72%
Dalian Zhixing or Tianjin Teda
76%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
52%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
26%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
82%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
50%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
24%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
71%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
35%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
63%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.34 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
48%
level
24%
Tianjin Teda scores more
28%

Dalian Zhixing at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Fang JingqiTianjin TedaTianjin Teda · G
8.2

Match Events

19'
A. Quiles↳ Wang Qiuming
41'
Isnik Alimi
46'
Fernando Karanga← P. Zhu
67'
Cao Haiqing← Lu Zhuoyi
67'
Liu Zhurun← Yang Mingrui
70'
Wang Xianjun← Guo Hao
70'
Su Yuanjie← Sun Ming-Him
77'
Yan Xiangchuang← Z. Labyad
78'
Liu Zhurun
81'
Fernando Karanga
82'
J. Liu← Ba Dun
84'
Yuanjie Su
88'
Jiahui Huang
88'
Ruan Yang← Wang Qiuming
89'
Juan Antonio Ros
89'
Li Yongjia← Huang Jiahui

Possession

67%Dalian

Shots

18Dalian

Pass accuracy

57%Dalian

Statistics

DalianTianjin
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots5
1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.50
9Corners0
13Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots5
7On Target4
6Off Target0
5Blocked1
13Inside Box1
5Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
515Total Passes272
403Accurate Passes160
78%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Super League: Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Tianjin Teda

Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in Super League on April 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Quiles (19'), Fernando Karanga (81').

Dalian Zhixing controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.