Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng

Dalian Zhixing

Preview

11:35

Shandong Luneng

7/18/2026

Super League · Round 19Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Big match

39%

Shandong Luneng

model favours

38%23%39%

93% of Shandong Luneng’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dalian Zhixing38%

×Draw23%

Shandong Luneng39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.68

Dalian Zhixing

1.64

Shandong Luneng

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

1.53

1.82

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.32

Shandong Luneng

1.53

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.82

Shandong Luneng

1.96

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Dalian Zhixing-0.12scores less

Shandong Luneng+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

61%

Dalian Zhixing or Shandong Luneng

77%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

62%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

19%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

81%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

49%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

23%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

81%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

50%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

49%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.32 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shandong Luneng attack 1.53 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

38%

level

23%

Shandong Luneng scores more

39%

Shandong Luneng at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 86% of Shandong Luneng’s matches
Top-of-the-table clash — Dalian Zhixing 3 vs Shandong Luneng 4
Shandong Luneng outscore their xG (2.4 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Dalian Zhixing

Balanced

Shandong Luneng

Balanced

49%Possession50%

78%Pass accuracy79%

13.9Shots15.4

1.24xGBiggest gap1.76

Dalian ZhixingShandong Luneng

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

2

Dalian Zhixing

0

Draws

1

Shandong Luneng

Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 67%

2–12–01–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Zhixing

WLDLW

Luneng

WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff