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Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
C. Malele 90' (pen)
Z. Labyad 31'
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Dalian Zhixing56%
×Draw22%
Qingdao Jonoon21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.89
Qingdao Jonoon
1.08

Dalian Zhixing creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.59
Qingdao Jonoon
1.02

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon
2.19

finishing

Dalian Zhixing-0.24scores less
Qingdao Jonoon-0.15scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
79%
Dalian Zhixing or Qingdao Jonoon
78%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
44%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
32%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
85%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
56%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
29%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
66%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
29%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
72%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 17 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.19 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.59 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.89

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.02 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
56%
level
22%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
21%

Dalian Zhixing at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
Lu ZhuoyiDalian ZhixingDalian Zhixing · D
8.6

Match Events

31'
Z. Labyad↳ Lu Zhuoyi
46'
Zhang Chi← Luo Senwen
59'
Che Shiwei← Jin Yonghao
59'
Xiao Kun← Filipe Augusto
60'
P. Zhu← Liu Zhurun
67'
Liu Junshuai
70'
Jia Feifan← Liu Junshuai
72'
W. Mao← Z. Labyad
83'
Wellington Silva
83'
Wong Ho-Chun Anson← Lin Chuangyi
85'
Cephas Malele
90+6'
Zhang Chi
90+6'
Zhang ChiCard upgrade
90+2'
Lu Peng← Liao Jintao
90+2'
Bi Jinhao← Cao Haiqing
90'
C. MalelePenalty

Possession

49%Dalian

Shots

17Dalian

Pass accuracy

51%Dalian

Statistics

DalianQingdao
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots9
3.07Expected Goals (xG)0.60
6Corners5
14Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots9
8On Target4
4Off Target3
5Blocked2
16Inside Box3
1Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
387Total Passes416
302Accurate Passes312
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides5

Super League: Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon

Dalian Zhixing beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

Goals: Z. Labyad (31'), C. Malele (90' pen).

Qingdao Jonoon controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.