Dalian Zhixing 1–0 Hangzhou Greentown

Dalian Zhixing

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

C. Malele 42'

6/30/2025

Super League · Round 16Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Dalian Zhixing46%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.26

Dalian Zhixing

1.63

Hangzhou Greentown

1.26

Dalian Zhixing creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.67

creates per match

1.43

1.09

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.67

Hangzhou Greentown

1.43

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.09

Hangzhou Greentown

1.59

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Dalian Zhixing-0.23scores less

Hangzhou Greentown-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

70%

Dalian Zhixing or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

54%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

24%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

80%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

48%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

22%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

72%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

36%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

61%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.09 · 16 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.59 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.67 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.43 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

46%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

30%

Dalian Zhixing at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

L. Possignolo

Hangzhou Greentown · D

7.9

Match Events

42'

C. Malele↳ Z. Labyad

61'

Y. Wang← D. Owusu-Sekyere

73'

W. Mao← Liu Zhurun

75'

Alexandru Mitriță

78'

Tao Qianglong← Tong Lei

86'

Jin Pengxiang← Cao Haiqing

86'

Lu Peng← Liao Jintao

90+1'

Tixiang Li

90+4'

Yan Xiangchuang← Z. Labyad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DalianHangzhou

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots8

1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.81

7Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked0

9Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

364Total Passes495

296Accurate Passes409

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2