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Dalian Zhixing vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
5/4/2024League OneLeague One · Round 9Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Zhixing49%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.67
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.19

Dalian Zhixing creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.87
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.80
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
73%
Dalian Zhixing or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
51%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
26%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
81%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
50%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
70%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
33%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
64%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.87 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
49%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
27%

Dalian Zhixing at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Zhixing 0–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Dalian Zhixing 1-0 in League One on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.