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Dalian Zhixing vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
9/2/2023League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 3Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dalian Zhixing56%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Lanhang16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.34
Guangxi Lanhang
0.57

Dalian Zhixing creates 135% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.18
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.27
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
84%
Dalian Zhixing or Guangxi Lanhang
72%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
44%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
27%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
74%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
39%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
15%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
43%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
11%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
78%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.18 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
56%
level
28%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
16%

Dalian Zhixing at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Guangxi Lanhang

Dalian Zhixing beat Guangxi Lanhang 2-0 in League Two on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.