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Dalian Zhixing vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2026

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
3/24/2024League OneLeague One · Round 3Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Zhixing55%
×Draw25%
Guangxi Baoyun20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.56
Guangxi Baoyun
0.83

Dalian Zhixing creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.87
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.80
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
80%
Dalian Zhixing or Guangxi Baoyun
75%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
45%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
29%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
79%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
46%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
21%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
56%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
20%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
73%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.87 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
55%
level
25%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
20%

Dalian Zhixing at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Zhixing 1–0 Guangxi Baoyun

Dalian Zhixing beat Guangxi Baoyun 1-0 in League One on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.