Dalian Zhixing 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long

Dalian Zhixing

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Zhao Xuebin 72'

10/22/2023

League Two · Promotion Group - 8Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dalian Zhixing31%

×Draw29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchChongqing Tongliang Long

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.18

Dalian Zhixing

1.00

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.18

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

2.09

0.27

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.18

Chongqing Tongliang Long

2.09

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

0.27

Chongqing Tongliang Long

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

60%

Dalian Zhixing or Chongqing Tongliang Long

71%

Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long

69%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

11%

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

63%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

26%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

8%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals

69%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals

33%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

44%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.18 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.09 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

31%

level

29%

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more

40%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Yuan Hao← Yin Lu

46'

Li Zhen← Zhang Hongjiang

52'

Wang Xuanhong← Yan Peng

63'

Ge Yuxiang← Zhang Zhen

70'

Wang Shengbo← Mao Weijie

72'

Zhao Xuebin↳ Wang Xuanhong

77'

Shi Jiwei← Liu Mingshi

77'

Tian Xiangyu← Song Pan

87'

Wang Weicheng← Chen Jiaqi

Dalian

Chongqing

41

3

56

57

14

53

51

52

▼

Mingshi

55

▼

Pan

17

▼

50

1

26

5

33

▼

Hongjiang

2

▼

Zhen

23

▼

Lu

29

Bo

15

Qiang

43

▼

Weijie

4

⚽

Xuebin

9

▼

Peng

Manager: Li Guoxu

46'▲Yuan Hao←▼Yin Lu

46'▲Li Zhen←▼Zhang Hongjiang

52'▲Wang Xuanhong←▼Yan Peng

63'▲Ge Yuxiang←▼Zhang Zhen

70'▲Wang Shengbo←▼Mao Weijie

Dalian Zhixing substitutes

24Hao14Zhen10Xuanhong11Yuxiang46Shengbo56Junhao3Duolin13Yipeng7Yifan18Liu51Binrong25Zhen

Manager: Lin Lin

77'▲Shi Jiwei←▼Liu Mingshi

77'▲Tian Xiangyu←▼Song Pan

87'▲Wang Weicheng←▼Chen Jiaqi

Chongqing Tongliang Long substitutes

5Jiwei18Xiangyu16Weicheng59Huamao21Yixuan29Yang13Kerui9Jinghao8Ablimit2Ting31Hejing37Jappar