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Dalian Transcendence vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — League One 2018

Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
5/20/2018League OneLeague One · Round 13Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Transcendence30%
×Draw28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Transcendence
1.04
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.30

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dalian Transcendence
1.07
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.40

allows per match

Dalian Transcendence
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.00

finishing

Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Transcendence ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dalian Transcendence or draw
58%
Dalian Transcendence or Shenzhen Ruby FC
72%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
70%

Winning margin

Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
11%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
65%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
28%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
9%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
73%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
37%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
41%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Transcendence at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Transcendence attack 1.07 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.40 + Dalian Transcendence defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dalian Transcendence scores more
30%
level
28%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
42%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Transcendence 1–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Dalian Transcendence and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 1-1 in League One on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian).