Dalian Transcendence 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Dalian Transcendence

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

5/12/2018

League One · Round 11Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Transcendence38%

×Draw28%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian TranscendenceExpected goals in this matchHeilongjiang Lava Spring

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Dalian Transcendence

1.23

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

1.07

creates per match

1.12

1.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Dalian Transcendence

1.07

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.12

allows per match

Dalian Transcendence

1.20

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Transcendence ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dalian Transcendence or draw

66%

Dalian Transcendence or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

72%

Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring

62%

Winning margin

Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+

16%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals

71%

Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals

35%

Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals

13%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

69%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

32%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)

52%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Transcendence at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Transcendence attack 1.07 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Dalian Transcendence defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalian Transcendence scores more

38%

level

28%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

34%

Dalian Transcendence at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dalian Transcendence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff