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Dalian Transcendence vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
10/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 29Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Transcendence40%
×Draw27%
Beijing Baxy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Transcendence
1.31
Beijing Baxy
1.14

Dalian Transcendence creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dalian Transcendence
1.07
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Dalian Transcendence
1.20
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Transcendence ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dalian Transcendence or draw
68%
Dalian Transcendence or Beijing Baxy
73%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
60%

Winning margin

Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
18%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
73%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
38%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
14%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
68%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
32%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
56%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Transcendence at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Transcendence attack 1.07 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Dalian Transcendence defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dalian Transcendence scores more
40%
level
27%
Beijing Baxy scores more
32%

Dalian Transcendence at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dalian Transcendence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Transcendence vs Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Dalian Transcendence 2-0 in League One on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium (Dalian).