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Dalian Huayi vs Nanjing City — League One 2026

Dalian Huayi
Dalian Huayi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
7/13/2025League OneLeague One · Round 16Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dalian Huayi46%
×Draw26%
Nanjing City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Huayi
1.45
Nanjing City
1.06

Dalian Huayi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dalian Huayi
1.55
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Dalian Huayi
1.09
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Dalian Huayi+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Huayi ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dalian Huayi or draw
72%
Dalian Huayi or Nanjing City
74%
Draw or Nanjing City
54%

Winning margin

Dalian Huayi wins by 2+
23%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dalian Huayi 1+ goals
77%
Dalian Huayi 2+ goals
42%
Dalian Huayi 3+ goals
18%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
65%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
29%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dalian Huayi (draw refunded)
62%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Huayi at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Huayi attack 1.55 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Dalian Huayi defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalian Huayi scores more
46%
level
26%
Nanjing City scores more
28%

Dalian Huayi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dalian Huayi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Huayi 3–1 Nanjing City

Dalian Huayi beat Nanjing City 3-1 in League One on July 13, 2025.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center Stadium in Dalian.