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Dalian Huayi vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Dalian Huayi
Dalian Huayi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
9/21/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 6Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dalian Huayi59%
×Draw24%
Hunan Billows FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Huayi
1.64
Hunan Billows FC
0.72

Dalian Huayi creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dalian Huayi
1.36
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Dalian Huayi
0.50
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Dalian Huayi+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Huayi ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dalian Huayi or draw
84%
Dalian Huayi or Hunan Billows FC
76%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
41%

Winning margin

Dalian Huayi wins by 2+
33%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dalian Huayi 1+ goals
81%
Dalian Huayi 2+ goals
49%
Dalian Huayi 3+ goals
23%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
51%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
16%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dalian Huayi (draw refunded)
79%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Huayi at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Huayi attack 1.36 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Dalian Huayi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dalian Huayi scores more
59%
level
24%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
16%

Dalian Huayi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dalian Huayi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dalian Huayi 3–0 Hunan Billows FC

Dalian Huayi beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.