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Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
7/22/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dalian Aerbin44%
×Draw25%
Wuhan Zall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.52
Wuhan Zall
1.22

Dalian Aerbin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Wuhan Zall
1.04

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Wuhan Zall
1.68

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
69%
Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Zall
75%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
56%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
22%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
78%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
45%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
20%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
70%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
34%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
59%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
44%
level
25%
Wuhan Zall scores more
31%

Dalian Aerbin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall

Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall drew 1-1 in Super League on July 22, 2021.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.