Dalian Aerbin 1–1 Tianjin Songjiang: Result & Stats

Dalian Aerbin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tianjin Songjiang

4/22/2018

Super League · Round 7Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dalian Aerbin43%

×Draw24%

Tianjin Songjiang33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian AerbinExpected goals in this matchTianjin Songjiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Dalian Aerbin

1.63

Tianjin Songjiang

1.40

Dalian Aerbin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.35

Tianjin Songjiang

1.40

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.40

Tianjin Songjiang

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw

67%

Dalian Aerbin or Tianjin Songjiang

76%

Draw or Tianjin Songjiang

57%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

22%

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

80%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

48%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

22%

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

75%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

41%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

57%

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more

43%

level

24%

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

33%

Dalian Aerbin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff