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Dalian Aerbin vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
4/28/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dalian Aerbin53%
×Draw23%
Hebei Zhongji24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.84
Hebei Zhongji
1.17

Dalian Aerbin creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
76%
Dalian Aerbin or Hebei Zhongji
77%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
47%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
30%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
84%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
55%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
28%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
69%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
33%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
69%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
53%
level
23%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
24%

Dalian Aerbin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dalian Aerbin 0–1 Hebei Zhongji

Hebei Zhongji beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 in Super League on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.