Dalian Aerbin 0–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Dalian Aerbin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

11/18/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dalian Aerbin38%

×Draw25%

Hangzhou Greentown37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian AerbinExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.42

Dalian Aerbin

1.46

Hangzhou Greentown

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.73

1.10

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.20

Hangzhou Greentown

1.73

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin

1.10

Hangzhou Greentown

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw

63%

Dalian Aerbin or Hangzhou Greentown

75%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

62%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

18%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

77%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

43%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

18%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

76%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

41%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

51%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.20 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.73 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more

38%

level

25%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

37%

Dalian Aerbin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff