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Dalbeattie Star vs Whitehill Welfare — FA Cup 2019

Dalbeattie Star
Dalbeattie Star
FT
1 – 2
Whitehill Welfare
Whitehill Welfare
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundIslecroft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dalbeattie Star34%
×Draw21%
Whitehill Welfare44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalbeattie Star
1.77
Whitehill Welfare
2.02

Whitehill Welfare creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dalbeattie Star
1.17
Whitehill Welfare
1.38

allows per match

Dalbeattie Star
2.67
Whitehill Welfare
2.38

finishing

Dalbeattie Star+0.00on par
Whitehill Welfare+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalbeattie Star ↓

Whitehill Welfare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dalbeattie Star or draw
56%
Dalbeattie Star or Whitehill Welfare
79%
Draw or Whitehill Welfare
66%

Winning margin

Dalbeattie Star wins by 2+
17%
Whitehill Welfare wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dalbeattie Star 1+ goals
83%
Dalbeattie Star 2+ goals
53%
Dalbeattie Star 3+ goals
26%
Whitehill Welfare 1+ goals
87%
Whitehill Welfare 2+ goals
60%
Whitehill Welfare 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dalbeattie Star (draw refunded)
44%
Whitehill Welfare (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalbeattie Star at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Whitehill Welfare away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalbeattie Star attack 1.17 + Whitehill Welfare defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.77

Whitehill Welfare attack 1.38 + Dalbeattie Star defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalbeattie Star scores more
34%
level
21%
Whitehill Welfare scores more
44%

Whitehill Welfare at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Whitehill Welfare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dalbeattie Star 1–2 Whitehill Welfare

Whitehill Welfare beat Dalbeattie Star 2-1 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Islecroft Stadium in Dalbeattie.