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Dakota vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Dakota
Dakota
FT
2 – 1
River Plate
River Plate
10/28/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 4Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dakota58%
×Draw19%
River Plate23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dakota
2.56
River Plate
1.60

Dakota creates 60% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dakota
2.79
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Dakota
1.26
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Dakota+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dakota ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dakota or draw
77%
Dakota or River Plate
81%
Draw or River Plate
42%

Winning margin

Dakota wins by 2+
37%
River Plate wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dakota 1+ goals
92%
Dakota 2+ goals
72%
Dakota 3+ goals
46%
River Plate 1+ goals
80%
River Plate 2+ goals
47%
River Plate 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dakota (draw refunded)
71%
River Plate (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dakota at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dakota attack 2.79 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

River Plate attack 1.95 + Dakota defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dakota scores more
58%
level
19%
River Plate scores more
23%

Dakota at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dakota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dakota vs River Plate

Dakota beat River Plate 2-1 in Division di Honor on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.