Dak Lak 0–1 Sanna Khanh Hoa: Result & Stats

Dak Lak

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sanna Khanh Hoa

7/23/2022

V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dak Lak31%

×Draw31%

Sanna Khanh Hoa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dak LakExpected goals in this matchSanna Khanh Hoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.04

Dak Lak

0.91

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.04

Sanna Khanh Hoa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 43 away

0.83

creates per match

0.86

1.22

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Dak Lak

0.83

Sanna Khanh Hoa

0.86

allows per match

Dak Lak

1.22

Sanna Khanh Hoa

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dak Lak+0.00on par

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dak Lak ↓

Sanna Khanh Hoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dak Lak or draw

62%

Dak Lak or Sanna Khanh Hoa

69%

Draw or Sanna Khanh Hoa

69%

Winning margin

Dak Lak wins by 2+

11%

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dak Lak 1+ goals

60%

Dak Lak 2+ goals

23%

Dak Lak 3+ goals

6%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals

65%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals

28%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dak Lak (draw refunded)

45%

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dak Lak at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dak Lak attack 0.83 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 0.86 + Dak Lak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dak Lak scores more

31%

level

31%

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more

38%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff