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Dak Lak vs Dong Thap — V.League 2 2020

Dak Lak
Dak Lak
FT
2 – 2
Dong Thap
Dong Thap
10/9/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Relegation Round - 1Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dak Lak40%
×Draw31%
Dong Thap30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dak Lak
1.10
Dong Thap
0.91

Dak Lak creates 21% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dak Lak
0.83
Dong Thap
0.60

allows per match

Dak Lak
1.22
Dong Thap
1.38

finishing

Dak Lak+0.00on par
Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dak Lak ↓

Dong Thap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dak Lak or draw
70%
Dak Lak or Dong Thap
69%
Draw or Dong Thap
60%

Winning margin

Dak Lak wins by 2+
16%
Dong Thap wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dak Lak 1+ goals
67%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
30%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
10%
Dong Thap 1+ goals
60%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
23%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dak Lak (draw refunded)
57%
Dong Thap (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dak Lak at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dak Lak attack 0.83 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Dak Lak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dak Lak scores more
40%
level
31%
Dong Thap scores more
30%

Dak Lak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dak Lak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Dak Lak 2–2 Dong Thap

Dak Lak and Dong Thap drew 2-2 in V.League 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột in Buôn Ma Thuột.