Dak Lak 0–2 Công An Nhân Dân: Result & Stats

Dak Lak

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Công An Nhân Dân

10/29/2022

V.League 2 · Round 22Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dak Lak24%

×Draw28%

Công An Nhân Dân47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dak LakExpected goals in this matchCông An Nhân Dân

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.31

Dak Lak

0.85

Công An Nhân Dân

1.31

Công An Nhân Dân creates 54% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

0.83

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Dak Lak

0.83

Công An Nhân Dân

1.40

allows per match

Dak Lak

1.22

Công An Nhân Dân

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dak Lak+0.00on par

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dak Lak ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dak Lak or draw

53%

Dak Lak or Công An Nhân Dân

72%

Draw or Công An Nhân Dân

76%

Winning margin

Dak Lak wins by 2+

8%

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dak Lak 1+ goals

57%

Dak Lak 2+ goals

21%

Dak Lak 3+ goals

5%

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

73%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

38%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dak Lak (draw refunded)

34%

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dak Lak at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dak Lak attack 0.83 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.40 + Dak Lak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dak Lak scores more

24%

level

28%

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

47%

Công An Nhân Dân at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff