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Dainava vs Tauras — 1 Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
Preview
12:00
Tauras
Tauras
8/2/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18
52%
Dainava
model favours
52%23%25%

Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dainava52%
×Draw23%
Tauras25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
1.84
Tauras
1.19

Dainava creates 55% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dainava
2.24
Tauras
1.42

allows per match

Dainava
0.95
Tauras
1.44

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Tauras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
75%
Dainava or Tauras
77%
Draw or Tauras
48%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
29%
Tauras wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
84%
Dainava 2+ goals
55%
Dainava 3+ goals
28%
Tauras 1+ goals
70%
Tauras 2+ goals
33%
Tauras 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
68%
Tauras (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

Tauras away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 2.24 + Tauras defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tauras attack 1.42 + Dainava defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dainava scores more
52%
level
23%
Tauras scores more
25%

Dainava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Tauras win just 31% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Dainava win just 52% against the top half (vs 83% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dainava
WDWWW
Tauras
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dainava face Tauras (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Dainava hosting Tauras. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.