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Dainava vs Panevėžys — A Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
4/16/2025A LygaA Lyga · Round 7Alytus Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dainava32%
×Draw26%
Panevėžys42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
1.19
Panevėžys
1.41

Panevėžys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 127 away

creates per match

Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
1.29

allows per match

Dainava
1.53
Panevėžys
1.43

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Panevėžys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
58%
Dainava or Panevėžys
74%
Draw or Panevėžys
68%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
13%
Panevėžys wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
70%
Dainava 2+ goals
33%
Dainava 3+ goals
12%
Panevėžys 1+ goals
76%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
41%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
43%
Panevėžys (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 72 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 0.94 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + Dainava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dainava scores more
32%
level
26%
Panevėžys scores more
42%

Panevėžys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Dainava 1–3 Panevėžys

Panevėžys beat Dainava 3-1 in A Lyga on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Alytus Stadium in Dainava.